5 Questions Answered About Electrifying Trucks

As part of its efforts to reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change, California is implementing strong policies to promote clean trucks. The state already mandates that, by 2035, all new cars and other light-duty vehicles sold must be zero-emission. The California Air Resources Board has adopted rules requiring that most trucks be zero-emission by 2035 and is now proposing that all trucks sold by 2045 must be zero-emission. The Conversation consulted a panel of transportation experts from the University of California, Davis to discuss the rapid transition required.

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1. Why is California targeting medium- and heavy-duty trucks?

Diesel engines are essential for transporting heavy loads but are also significant polluters. Diesel trucks account for a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions and nearly half of conventional air pollution from transportation in U.S. cities.

Diesel exhaust contains pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, fine particulates, and various cancer-causing compounds. Disadvantaged communities near highways and industrial areas are particularly affected by diesel pollution. In California, regions like the Central Valley and Los Angeles-Long Beach experience some of the worst air quality, prompting state efforts to reduce diesel use.

Almost all diesel fuel in the U.S. is consumed by trucks rather than passenger vehicles.

2. Are zero-emission trucks ready to go?

To a certain extent, yes. Some new models, primarily powered by batteries and some by hydrogen fuel cells, are available on the market, with more introductions occurring frequently.

However, production volumes remain small, and numerous variations of truck models are needed for various applications, such as local mail delivery or long-haul transportation. Many of these unique needs are not currently met by available zero-emission trucks.

Additionally, the purchase price of new electric truck models is higher than that of comparable diesel trucks. Nevertheless, as the market for zero-emission trucks grows, economies of scale should significantly reduce these costs, similar to the trends seen with zero-emission cars and light-duty trucks.

The total cost of ownership for zero-emission trucks includes purchase price, fuel expenses, and maintenance, which are already competitive in some markets with conventional diesel trucks. For instance, trucks used for local deliveries by companies like Amazon, UPS, and FedEx typically do not require large battery packs, as they are driven less than 150 miles per day. Their lower energy costs and reduced maintenance often offset the higher purchase prices, leading to long-term savings.

Our research indicates that by 2025 and especially by 2030, many applications for battery trucks—and possibly hydrogen fuel cell trucks—will exhibit total costs of ownership that are competitive or lower than those for conventional diesel trucks. This is especially aided by California subsidies and incentives like the Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project, which reduces the costs of new electric trucks and buses. Furthermore, California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard significantly lowers the cost of low-carbon fuels and electricity for fleets.

Currently, more than 150 zero-emission truck models are available and eligible for state funding, ranging from large pickups to heavy-duty tractor units.

3. Is there enough charging infrastructure to support all these vehicles?

Providing near-zero-carbon electricity for EVs and hydrogen for fuel cells, alongside expanding charging and refueling infrastructure, is crucial as we roll out zero-emission trucks.

Fleet owners will need to install chargers capable of charging their battery-powered trucks overnight or during the day. These stations may require substantial power, leading utilities to upgrade infrastructure to accommodate potentially high demands.

Fuel cell trucks will require hydrogen stations at fleet depots or public locations for rapid refueling without straining the electricity system. However, producing hydrogen requires electricity, adding pressure to the electric grid.

Expanding charging and hydrogen refueling infrastructure is as critical as getting zero-emission trucks on the roads.

Currently, few public or private charging or hydrogen stations for truck fleets exist in California. However, the California Public Utility Commission has permitted utilities to charge customers for installing many stations across the state. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Energy recently allocated $8 billion for constructing hydrogen hubs—networks for producing and delivering clean hydrogen nationwide.

Despite these initiatives, the development of charging and hydrogen infrastructure may slow the transition to zero-emission trucks, particularly for long-haul vehicles.

4. Who would be affected by a diesel truck ban?

California's regulations will impact both truck manufacturers and users. The state's Advanced Clean Trucks rule, established in 2020, mandates an increasing percentage of zero-emission truck sales beginning in 2024. By 2035, 40% to 75% of all trucks must be zero-emission, depending on type.

A new proposal, the Advanced Clean Fleets rule, set for adoption in 2023, would require fleets with more than 50 trucks to progressively purchase more zero-emission vehicles, with a complete transition by 2045.

These two policies will work together; the Advanced Clean Trucks rule ensures zero-emission trucks are available, while the Advanced Clean Fleets rule provides manufacturers with assurance of a market.

These regulations are some of the most ambitious globally in accelerating the transition to zero-emission trucks.

5. Are other states emulating California?

Yes, numerous states are showing interest in electrifying trucking. Oregon, Washington, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts have adopted the Advanced Clean Trucks rule, with others following suit. Seventeen states, along with the District of Columbia, are collaborating to foster a self-sustaining market for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.

We anticipate that transitioning to zero-emission truck fleets will require strong policy support until at least 2030, if not longer. Transitioning should eventually become self-sufficient as production scales and fleets adapt their operations, reducing costs. This transition could come soon, especially for medium-duty trucks.

However, converting large long-haul trucks poses challenges due to their need for substantial onboard energy storage and the advantages of rapid refueling. Hydrogen fuel cell systems may be optimal for many of these vehicles; ultimately, fleets will determine which technologies best suit their needs.

The shift to zero-emission trucks will disrupt many fleets and businesses, requiring government support during the transition's early stages. Nonetheless, prospects for zero-emission trucking are bright, offering significant clean air and climate benefits while potentially delivering cost savings for truck owners.

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